The 2011 holiday shopping season turned out to be a solid one for retailers. But it was a strange and bumpy ride to get there… Black Friday started things off well but December sales were weak up until closer to Christmas when shoppers returned to stores. Overall, holiday retail sales were up 4.5% compared to last season while average daily spending during the holidays was $83/day (vs. $85/day last season per Gallup).
The post-Black Friday lull was deeper than usual this year. The two weeks after Thanksgiving weekend showed the biggest percentage sales decline since 2000. Then, during the final two weeks before Christmas, sales surged again, by the highest rate since 2005.
Interestingly, Christmas Eve and December 26th were the second and third heaviest spending days of the season. Which is odd because many analysts didn’t even have December 24th forecast to be among the top 10 days. (But it was on a Saturday this year, which should have tipped a few off.)
Online retail in particular had a great season, up 15% versus last season. (Weekly online spending is below–click to enlarge.)
The combination of aggressive retailer discounting, the long-enduring recession and some rebounding activity created four types of shoppers this season:
The Bargain Timer:
Wait until the prices are at their absolute lowest, then strike hard.
The Midnight Buyer:
Get the best inventory no matter what time.
The Returner:
Over-buy and return. (Interestintly, retailers plan on returning nearly 10 cents of every dollar taken in during the holidays.)
The “Me” Shopper:
One for you, one for me.
Most likely, everyone showed signs of each this season.
But a strong holiday shopping season kicks 2012 off in a welcomed positive direction and somewhat helps abate the worries of low consumer demand which, per McKinsey, is the key thing executives report to be concerned with as 2012 begins.
Online retail in particular had a great season, up 15% versus last season.
We also put together a holiday recipe book filled with tasty things to eat and drink this holiday season. You can download it here. All recipes are ones that we at DC make in our homes this time of year.
2011′s Black Friday and Thanksgiving weekend brought a record 226 million shoppers to stores. Spending rang in at $52 billion, which was 16% more than last year according to the National Retail Federation. A complete look at the last six years of shopping activity is below (click to enlarge):
A couple of random retail notes about last weekend: Men purchased more than women with an average spend of $484 versus $317 and, on average, US shoppers visited 3.1 stores per shopping trip.
Online spending over the weekend was up 26% per comScore to $816 million as 50 million US shoppers took to the web on Black Friday, 35% more than last season. Amazon led all sites with 50% more visitors than any other retailer.
How much did each shopper spend online? According to IBM Coremetrics the average order was $190 for 6 items–interestingly, both of these figures were slightly lower than last year*. But overall a jump of 26% in online spending is good news considering that last season online spending rose only 9%.
Mobile shopping was another area that saw significant growth this season with PayPal reporting a spending increase of 516% over last year courtesy of four times as many people shopping Black Friday sales on their mobile phones.
Most reports cite three key reasons for the holiday weekend upsurge:
- Pre-Midnight Openings
- Positive Strong Merchandising
- Competitive Price-to-Value Relationships
This is probably true as yesterday’s Cyber Monday (a phrase coined in 2006) continued the positive sales momentum. Online traffic yesterday was up 43% from last year with online sales up 18% (as of 9pm last night). Electronics were the most popular item purchased, up 26%.
Moving into December the National Retail Federation has estimated that holiday sales will increase to $465.6 billion this year, up about 2.8% versus last season.
Yet while all of these numbers are strong, and publications like Reuters are posting headlines like holiday shopping is off to a solid start, it doesn’t necessarily mean this holiday season will be breaking records. RetailSails provides us with a good historical reminder…
“Black Friday weekend has historically not been a very good predictor of overall Holiday retail sales. For example, both the National Retail Federation and ShopperTrak saw record spending over Black Friday weekend in 2008, but overall that Holiday season saw by far the worst performance on record as overall sales in the November-December period tumbled 4.4%.”
Additionally, with 84% of American households saying today that they will spend the same amount or less than they did last holiday season we should look for retailers to continue their aggressive approaches all month long with some doing exceedingly well at the expense of others.
Most likely you own two connected devices. Actually, according to Forrester Research, one third of the US under the age of 50 owns three or more. And with each passing year these connected devices are growing in adoption and use. New devices are not necessarily forecast to replace each other but rather to add on to your technology portfolio. Which makes sense. For now, it’s hard to imagine creating a robust Excel spreadsheet on a tablet or phone.
So what are we doing with this technology? First we’re texting. Research says that most of us send between 500 – 800 texts per month with teens sending over 2,500 per month.
We are also reminded by the widely-respected Mary Meeker that we’re getting our music, our information, and our updates through the phone at an amazingly increasing rate:
It’s also very interesting to learn that 85% of the world’s population is now covered by commercial wireless signals, providing greater reach than the electrical grid, which rests at 80%.
Mobile is efficient.
But next time you’re at the airport, mall or other public place take note on how many people are using the phone versus how many people are on the phone.
On average wireless customers use 450 minutes per month, a decline of 77 minutes just two years ago. And if each text, call or email is counted as an “interaction” then 80% of interactions with our phone is non-voice related.
Furthermore, when we do talk on the phone these days we’re talking less. The average length of a phone call in 2008 was about two-and-a-half minutes. Today, it’s thought to be around 90 seconds.
Did we all of the sudden develop a resistance to speaking to other people?
Not really. (Although everyone can support and be thankful that we can communicate in multiple ways rather than just default to the telephone.)
What probably explains it best is something Clay Shirky wrote in Cognitive Surplus about technology adoption and age:
“1. everything that’s already in the world when you’re born is just normal;
2. anything that gets invented between then and before you turn thirty is incredibly exciting and creative and with any luck you can make a career out of it;
3. anything that gets invented after you’re thirty is against the natural order of things and the beginning of the end of civilisation as we know it until it’s been around for about ten years when it gradually turns out to be alright really.”
But what if the technology was reversed?
It’s helpful to think this way sometimes.When you do, perhaps it changes perception.
What if we started off with texting and data and online networking capabilities and then all of the sudden one day we could actually call people. We could talk to our friends as they we’re enjoying some far off land. We could hear them laugh on the other side of the country. We could catch up on old stories without having to type everything.
Anthony Tjan had a good post on HBR recently where he talked about how important it is to sometimes pick up the phone…
“The bigger need is for more live conversations to occur, period. This is especially true when people are trying to resolve a conflict or communicate an important business decision. There is a rising and unproductive trend towards people trying to do digital conflict resolution. The de facto path for issue resolution seems to be increasingly via email. More accurately, email has become a convenient mechanism for issue-avoidance.”
To help with this it’s important not to confuse media with interpersonal communication.
Our mobile devices are becoming more about media which, because that’s so cool, applies a hit on interpersonal communication, such as phone calls.
Back to Cognitive Surplus:
“Media is how you know when and where your friend’s birthday party is. Media is how you know what’s happening in Tehran, who’s in charge in Tegucigalpa, or the price of tea in China. Media is how you know why Kierkegaard disagreed with Hegel. Media is how you know when your next meeting is. Media is how you know about anything more than ten yards away.”
Our devices provide us both media and interpersonal communication abilities. But technology will continue to build the bicep of media much more than the tricep of interpersonal communication. So it’s up to us to keep the latter as strong as the former.
If cellular voice calling had just been invented I have a hunch we’d be talking more. Perhaps we might even avoid some issues, speed up decision making and get to know each other a little bit better.
The cooler weather and quickly approaching winter outdoor activities have us reflecting on some recent late summer and fall additions to Drake Cooper…
First, we welcome several new client partners aboard: St. Luke’s Health Systems, the largest health care system in the state, and Jacksons Food Stores, a leading Northwest convenience store retailer. These are two of Idaho’s best brands and we are most excited to be working together with both organizations on their marketing.
For St. Luke’s Health Systems, we’ll be engaged in brand building work, campaign planning and future marketing message development. For Jacksons our duties will include marketing strategy, advertising, social media, online marketing, media planning & buying and packaging design, such as this:
DC has also been working with the PSAMA, Puget Sound American Marketing Association, who recently launched an annual awards show celebrating marketing results. We believe there needs to be more shows solely about results so we were honored to be tasked with naming this new show, creating the brand, designing the award trophy and more. The Pulse Awards are for Seattle-area organizations and took place in October.
A snapshot of the brand can be sampled in this video that played during the show…
Jensen Jewelers: “A Backyard Proposal”
We’ve worked with Jensen Jewelers for many years now, and over that time we’ve had the opportunity to concept and develop TV, radio, signage, and collateral for some fun and effective promotions, including their “Bright Sale,” “Any Old Ring,” and “The Great Heist.” Most recently, the jeweler made the leap to the small screen and tasked Drake Cooper with concepting and producing their first live-action brand/image TV spot.
Buying a diamond engagement ring is a big step in any person’s life. Not only does Jensen offer the expertise of over 50 years in the jewelry business, a hearty understanding of diamonds, gems, settings and styles, but they understand that you’re buying much more than precious materials. Along with this purchase comes hope. A promise. A future. And ultimately love.
“Authentic Moments of Love” is the brand strategy behind the Jensen SHINE brand. This TV spot was concepted from that emotional capture; like those simple moments that might not represent fireworks for anyone other than the two involved, the surprise note found in a pocket, a wink from across the room. While most women and men don’t endeavor to wear the jewelry of a duchess or that of James Bond, we do want to wear something special given by someone who sees the magic in us.
Big Shout Out: Dennis Budell, Cale Cathey, Dylan Amundson, Karma Jones, North by Northwest, and Sean Young.
Regardless of what you thought of this new Twinings Tea ad, do you need to see it two more times to understand it?
How about this? Need three times?
For decades there’s been a commonly-accepted industry rule that an ad needs to run three times in order for it to be effective on the viewer. Where did this come from and is it true?
Paul Feldwick, an exceptional brand planning thinker, recently wrote about this over at Warc. I’ll let you read it for yourself but basically the idea of “three frequency” started in the research department of GE in 1972. Their findings stated that the first ad impression allows the viewer to understand what it is, the second is to evaluate its relevancy and the third would be a true reminder.
Around the same time another study was published by the Marketing Science Institute that talked about how two ad exposures were needed for brand switching. This study was then basically combined with the GE study and in 1979 the Advertising Research Foundation published a paper solidifying a recommended frequency of 3x.
So we’ve had this three frequency idea for over 30 years and it’s worth a renewed look…
One Ad
First, before we immediately jump to the importance of three ads, what’s the value of just one ad?
Single-source panels (research sources that link buying behavior and advertising exposure) have shown repeatedly that in 45 – 50% of cases exposure to just one ad in a short period before buying increases the probability of buying that brand by a considerable degree. One ad, done well, does a lot of work without relying on the reinforcement of repeat exposure.
This points to the core purpose of advertising that Stephen King, the founder of Account Planning at JWT, called saleability. Yes, advertising can create sales immediately, but it also makes it so everything else–from packaging to pricing–has an easier job of selling.
But because of its linear structure, the frequency model infers that we can’t get something the first time. It presumes that we make all of our decisions in a very logical, processed, step-by-step manner.
Is this how we think? Someone tells us something so we know about it, then we’re told the same thing again so we can determine if it makes sense for us and then we’re reminded a third time so we can act. Do you need these three steps appropriately spaced out when discussing what you want for dinner tonight? Or accepting a friend’s recommendation on a movie?
But the 1972 GE research had to have a reason to say we made buying decisions like this. One possible answer: consider that in the early 70s if we saw an ad for something new, like Instant Breakfast, we didn’t have any options for more information. All we had was what an ad told us, what a friend said or our own eventual trial.
So we waited for information to arrive. Attitudes surrounding consumerism moved slower than they do today. And if a research project discussed ad exposure and purchase behavior it probably would have reflected this sentiment.
How We Communicate
We communicate with feeling and tone. It’s commonly estimated that between 60 – 95% of all communication is non verbal and it was the research of Paul Watzlawick that helped identify that it’s the tone (or metacommunication) that provides true meaning to words that are said. Effective communication doesn’t have much to do with the order and interval of spoken events… It has to do with the way things are said.
It’s emotion and feeling that motivates. As neurologist Donald Calne nicely stated:
“the essential difference between emotion and reason is that emotion leads to action while reason leads to conclusion”.
Howard Gossage once wrotethat the buying of (advertising) time or space is not the taking out of a hunting license on someone else’s private preserve but is the renting of a stage on which we may perform.
This melds well with the idea of how things are said. Volume and repetition upon one person reaches diminishing returns quickly. The ad connects with them or it doesn’t and from there we’ll either have effective communication or non-communication.
Like this new ad from Deutsch. If you’re a gamer it connects on first viewing. If you’re not you could see it 1,000 times and still not have any idea what’s going on.
Distracted Viewers
But viewers are distracted. 40% of tablet and smartphone owners use them while watching TV. And with current adoption rates smartphones are approaching half of all mobile phones in the US. We are absorbing content on the go all the time. And when something connects we have instant access to take a next step. Danah Boyd articulated this perfectly:
“The goal is not to be a passive consumer of information or to simply tune in when the time is right, but rather to live in a world where information is everywhere. To be peripherally aware of information as it flows by, grabbing it at the right moment when it is most relevant and valuable, entertaining or insightful. Living with, in, and around information. Most of that information is social information, but some of it is entertainment information or news information or productive information.”
So what are the odds that one single placement (or only one execution for that matter) is going to reach us and be relevant as we dash around our lives, zoning in and out of digital absorption in between things? We need multiple chips across the roulette board to hedge our odds of engaging someone correctly. This requires a diversified and nearly constant plan. Colleen DeCourcy referred to this type of thinking once as constant communications, which I rather like.
Perhaps it’s the word and meaning of frequency that should be challenged today. We don’t need to run an ad three times in order for one person to come to a decision. We need to create multiple opportunities for at least one relevant, emotion-forward, successful connection.
Or as a sentence in the original 1972 GE research report on frequency stated: “Like a product sitting on a shelf, you never know when the customer is going to be looking for you, so you must rent the shelf space all the time.”
Our Dream Big application for 2012 is up and ready. We are looking for a non-profit that, like us, enjoys sunlit beaches, Lobster Thermidor, and the Word Scrambler in the Monday ‘paper. If we’re not a match on those things, perhaps we can bond over your marketing needs.
This will be the fifth year for Dream Big, and we couldn’t be more pleased with our past years’ non-profits. Our organizations have really run the gamut. We created this program when we were working with BAM Jam in 2008.
BAM Jam is a three-on-three basketball tournament that takes place one August weekend in downtown Boise. As it was their inaugural year, we helped them with branding, messaging, PR and web development. The energy of this project was palpable. We were lucky to work with some really great people, and that the proceeds from BAM Jam are donated to the Boys & Girls Club and the Idaho Select Player’s Fund made this project even more gratifying.
In 2009 the Learning Lab worked with us to build their organization a brand new website. We were able to create it from the ground up, including strategy sessions, online messaging, and photo shoots. We had the privilege of meeting several of their students through that process, and their stories of strength and determination are astounding.
The Learning Lab is an organization that teaches and encourages adults who struggle with literacy. Because illiteracy is often cyclical through generations, Learning Lab promotes family literacy, and helps families discover the joy of learning together.
Last year we had the pleasure of working with the Boise Bicycle Project, a local bicycle cooperative that strives to build a stronger bicycling community by promoting the health, personal, social and environmental benefits of biking. BBP believes that everyone should have access to a quality bicycle regardless of income, and they are doing their part to get bicycles to those who need and want one.
BBP put on a killer bicycle block party the last weekend in May with live music, auction, and a Frankenbike contest (A Frankenbike is a crazy looking bike created from mismatched bike parts.). We helped them get the word out by designed posters, t-shirts, spokescards, and worked to get them mentioned in an article in Sunset magazine, among other things. This organization has a huge heart and has given away hundreds of bikes to kids in need.
Most recently, the Boise Rescue Mission became our Dream Big organization for 2011. The Boise Rescue Mission provides food, shelter, clothing and opportunities to recover from homelessness for men, women, and children in need. They have several shelters here in the Boise valley and have served over 300,000 meals already this year.
In the last several months, our teams have worked together to hone BRM’s brand messaging strategy as well as BRM’s identity design. We have really enjoyed getting to know the team over there and admire all the great work they do every day.
The question we are asked most frequently surrounds the criteria we use to choose the Dream Big awardee. Though not an exact science, we take a close look at what it is you need, decide whether we can provide that, and let the tugs on our hearts do the rest. Everyone in our agency has a vote, and we choose an organization that we feel strongly about. We want to help your goodness multiply, and we believe in you!
2012 is nearly upon us, and we are enjoying the applications that are coming in. Our application will be up until October 31st, so another month yet. We hope to hear from you big dreamers out there!
If you’re anything like me, fall holds a special place in your heart. Long sleeves start making an appearance, those beautiful knee-high Frye boots come out of hiding, and the air holds a crispness that both smells good and is a welcome reprieve from the 90-degree days.
But mostly, TV’s fall lineup begins.
Like every year, there are plenty of new shows debuting on our prime time networks. This season looks to be much more successful than the past two or three years. Reality TV is taking a back seat to scripted dramas and sitcoms (say word!), which signifies to me that networks are playing to the public’s desire for something meatier than the gaucheness of “real-life” waste-ertainment. (It should be said that not all reality TV is crap. I seriously cannot get enough of “Dual Survival.” That guy is barefoot!)
Each network seems to be jumping on the glittering vampire genre, capitalizing on the raging popularity of this topic. We’ll also see a supernatural glint conveyed in both police procedurals as well as regular scripted dramas. Trying to capture some of the success of nostalgia-driven shows a la “Mad Men,” ABC’s “Pan Am,” and NBC’s “Playboy Club” are hitting it hard. And, of course, the crime/doctor/lawyer dramas are back with a vengeance. Because most of the “Law and Order” suite is retiring, as well as some of the “CSI” suite, there will be a strong demand for replacements.
My picks are “Pan Am” and “Once Upon A Time.” Anything done by the creators of “LOST” has my vote, and “Pan Am” has that nostalgia-rich hue to it that is sure to charm many.
“The New Girl” with Zooey Deschanel (how do you not love her?) will probably do very well, and so will “Terra Nova,” a sci-fi thriller produced by Steven Spielberg. I personally am looking forward to “Allen Gregory” (as much as I hate to admit it), which is an animated sitcom with the voice of Jonah Hill.
“Awake” is the story of a man who is living a most unusual double life. Because of a car accident, he alternates days where his wife is alive, but his son is dead, and then vice versa. Gorgeous.
Shamelessly, I have to recommend a guilty pleasure (which is what the CW is all about for anyone over the age of 18). “The Secret Circle,” if nothing else, will most likely deliver a good stash of hip new music. (I mean, let’s be real. That’s the only reason I watch “Gossip Girl.” The music. I swear.)
Ultimately, the success of each show will depend as much on the writing, acting, and production as the general audience’s affinity to the network.
Which do you think will succeed? Let me know, but of course, not during the hours of 7-10pm M-F – I’ve got TV to watch.
